A Recession Is In Front Of The Eyes, SMI’s Third Quarter Economic Projection Is Minus
Source: Cnnindonesia.com | 02 Sep 2020
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani predicts the economy in the third quarter of 2020 will be minus. This means that Indonesia will enter the abyss of recession after its economic growth in the second quarter was minus 5.32 percent.
However, he did not say for sure whether the economic contraction in the July-September 2020 period would be worse or better than the second quarter of 2020.
“It is predicted that in the third quarter of 2020 (Indonesia) will experience negative growth,” said Ani, his nickname, in a video conference, Wednesday (2/9).
It is known, a country is called a recession if its economy grows minus in two consecutive quarters.
Meanwhile, Ani sees that Indonesia’s economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 has not fully recovered. In other words, it is still difficult for the domestic economy to grow positively amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“The economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 is still in a zone slightly below neutral,” he explained.
Throughout this year, he predicts the Indonesian economy will be minus 0.2 percent to 1.1 percent. This figure is worse than the initial prediction of minus 0.4 percent to positive 2.3 percent.
However, the government looks more optimistic next year. Ani targets a positive economy of 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2021.
It’s just that the economic recovery will only really be seen in the second semester of 2021. He is of the opinion that the economic recovery in the first semester of 2021 is not strong enough.
“So in the first semester of next year, we cannot assume a full power economic recovery,” said Ani.
He added that the economic recovery will not be maximized in the first half of next year because it is hindered by the corona virus pandemic. The outbreak is predicted to hold back consumption and investment in early 2021.
“So that the economy really depends on the recovery in the second semester of 2020,” he concluded.