Sumber: Cnbcindonesia.com | 05 Jun 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beberapa indikator ekonomi mulai menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi mulai kembali bergeliat seiring dengan ekonomi China yang terus melaju dan pelonggaran lockdown di berbagai negara. Namun mengingat krisis ini belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, maka kecepatan pemulihan ekonomi masih menghadapi tantangan besar yaitu ketidakpastian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Indikator yang mencerminkan bahwa ekonomi mulai membaik secara perlahan adalah Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Angka PMI manufaktur di negara-negara dengan kontribusi PDB terbesar di dunia yakni G20 pada bulan Mei mengalami peningkatan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Namun angka PMI manufaktur mayoritas negara-negara anggota G20 masih di bawah 50 yang mengindikasikan bahwa sektor manufaktur masih dalam keadaan terkontraksi. Hanya China dan Afrika Selatan saja yang tercatat angka PMI manufakturnya sudah mencapai level 50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
India dan Indonesia tercatat mengalami kontraksi di sektor manufaktur yang sangat parah jika dibandingkan dengan negara-negara anggota G20 lainnya. Angka PMI manufaktur India dan Indonesia masing-masing berada di 27,4 dan 27,5 di bulan April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beralih ke sektor jasa, angka PMI jasa bulan Mei 2020 di negara-negara G20 juga sudah mengindikasikan adanya perbaikan. Kebanyakan negara masih menunjukkan adanya kontraksi karena angkanya masih di bawah 50. Hanya China yang sektor jasanya sudah mengalami ekspansi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China saat ini memang memimpin pemulihan ekonomi. Maklum sebagai negara yang terjangkit pertama, China juga menjadi negara pertama yang mendeklarasikan diri terbebas dari belenggu wabah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Memasuki bulan Maret jumlah kasus baru di China telah menurun drastis. Hal ini membuat China menjadi lebih leluasa untuk mencabut lockdown terutama di Provinsi Hubei, China bagian tengah yang jadi pusat wabah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Banyak negara yang terjangkit wabah memilih opsi karantina wilayah mengikuti langkah China. Tak kurang dari 3 miliar orang di dunia atau hampir separuh penduduk bumi mobilitasnya dibatasi. Saking besarnya skala pembatasan, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) sampai menyebutnya The Great Lockdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dengan pembatasan yang skalanya masif ini, perekonomian global akhirnya menderita parah mengingat rodanya digerakkan oleh mobilitas orang, barang, modal dan tenaga kerja. Krisis kesehatan yang meluas ini membuat perekonomian global mengalami kontraksi yang dalam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dalam laporan World Economic Outlook April 2020, IMF memperkirakan ekonomi global mengalami kontraksi sebesar 3% pada 2020 dengan asumsi bahwa wabah mulai mereda pada paruh kedua tahun 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nilai kerugian ekonomi yang harus ditanggung akibat pandemi abad ini ditaksir mencapai US$ 9 triliun. Sangat fantastis tentunya karena angkanya masih lebih besar dari output perekonomian Jepang digabung dengan Jerman menurut IMF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Untuk menyelamatkan perekonomian dari keterpurukan pemerintah dan bank sentral global memberikan bantuan kepada masyarakat, pengusaha hingga sektor keuangan. Namun jelas dengan skala yang berbeda-beda tergantung kapasitas masing-masing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
IMF menilai perekonomian global akan tumbuh 5,8% pada tahun 2021 setelah mengalami kontraksi tahun ini. Namun ingat, kalkulasi ini mengacu pada asumsi bahwa wabah sudah mereda di semester kedua 2020. Jika sampai dengan paruh kedua wabah masih terus merebak atau terjadi gelombang kedua maka aktivitas ekonomi bisa kembali anjlok.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Source: Cnbcindonesia.com | 05 Jun 2020 Several economic indicators are starting to show that the economy is starting to get back on its feet as China’s economy continues to accelerate and the easing of lockdowns in various countries. However, considering that this crisis has never happened before, the speed of economic recovery is still facing major challenges, namely uncertainty. An indicator that reflects that the economy is slowly improving is the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Manufacturing PMI figures in countries with the largest GDP contribution in the world, namely the G20 in May, increased. However, the PMI figures for manufacturing in the majority of G20 member countries are still below 50 which indicates that the manufacturing sector is still in a contractionary state. Only China and South Africa have recorded that the PMI for manufacturing has reached the 50 level. India and Indonesia experienced a very severe contraction in the manufacturing sector when compared to other G20 member countries. The PMI figures for India and Indonesia were at 27.4 and 27.5 respectively in April. Turning to the services sector, the services PMI figures for May 2020 in the G20 countries have also indicated an improvement. Most countries still show a contraction because the figure is still below 50. Only China has its service sector expanded. China is currently leading the economic recovery. Understandably, as the first infected country, China is also the first country to declare itself free from the shackles of the plague. Entering March the number of new cases in China had dropped dramatically. This makes China more flexible to lift the lockdown, especially in Hubei Province, central China which is the epicenter of the outbreak. Many countries that have contracted the outbreak have chosen the lockdown option following China’s lead. No less than 3 billion people in the world or nearly half of the world’s population have limited mobility. Because of the large scale of the restrictions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called it The Great Lockdown. With this massive scale of restrictions, the global economy has ended up suffering badly as the wheels are driven by the mobility of people, goods, capital and labor. This widespread health crisis caused the global economy to experience a deep contraction. In its April 2020 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF estimates that the global economy will contract by 3% in 2020 assuming that the outbreak will begin to subside in the second half of 2020. The economic loss to be borne due to the pandemic of this century is estimated at US $ 9 trillion. Very fantastic, of course, because the figure is still greater than the economic output of Japan combined with Germany according to the IMF. To save the economy from the downturn, the government and global central banks provide assistance to the public, entrepreneurs to the financial sector. However, it is clear that the scale varies depending on the capacity of each. The IMF assesses that the global economy will grow 5.8% in 2021 after experiencing a contraction this year. However, remember, this calculation refers to the assumption that the outbreak has subsided in the second half of 2020. If until the second half of the outbreak it continues to spread or there is a second wave then economic activity could fall back down.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-announcements"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bakrie-brothers.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}